A lecture.

In this millennium we have used the same amount of oil as we used in the whole of the last millennium. And we’re only 10 years in. As well as being true this is obvious to anyone with the smallest amount of maths. Over the last 100 years our consumption of oil has increased by a steady 7% per annum. We aim for steady growth and usually achieve it, and when we don’t, as in 2008, we talk of recession, even depression and believe we’re entering economic melt down. So a small percentage growth isn’t much to ask for is it, especially when the alternative is so frightening. Now remember compound interest at school? It’s where you add a small percentage each year and it begins to add up. Well if you add a measly 7% each year for 10 years you get to 200% or double what you started with. Hence whatever oil we used in 2000 we will now be using double that amount. In 1990 it was half the 2000 figure, in 1980 a quarter and so on. Now if you add up all those fraction, a ½ + ¼ + 1/8 etc the total comes to less than 1, so 1 (2000) + slightly less than 1 (before 200) is slightly less than 2, our 2010 figure. So growth is our biggest enemy and strangely enough our solutions are our biggest source of problems. Every time we create a solution, like electricity, cars, health care and better food productivity we create problems with pollution, dependency and an increasing population.


Last night we watched a program on the Obama campaign. He started one man with a small team of organisers. More joined them who shared Obama’s vision, organising and spreading that vision to people who also connected with it. As the campaign moved from state to state thousands joined, then millions until many tears were shed as they rejoiced Obama becoming president, each sharing a new vision for America. And within days he was left as he started, one man. Truckers went back to driving trucks, teachers to teaching thinking their job was over, they’d done it. We are entering a new era where democracy is insufficient, even inappropriate to change our beliefs in growth, productivity and consumption. It may be that democracy as we know it is only suitable for periods of growth; we simply would never vote for someone with policies appropriate to periods of contraction. Only by each of those millions who shared Obama’s vision enacting that vision individually can we create a new politic. With thanks to Dr Albert Bartlett’s lectures at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY  A must watch if you're interested in your childrens future.