War like Water.

The speaker began. “When I was a kid I dammed streams in a field by my parents house. I was maybe five. The earth was sandy, you could build dams pretty quick and form little pools but as the level rose the sand gave way and whoosh. When one country decides to invade another they move troops to the border and in response the other country does the same. Rising pressure is contained by a damming resistance all ready for a fight. I noticed the bigger the dam the greater the flood when it broke, and it always broke in the end. If I didn’t build a dam the water just trickled on through. So now I’m thinking a fight is caused as much be resistance as it is aggression. It made me wonder, what if there was no resistance?” The audience buzzed with thoughts of capitulation. “What percentage of a population are in the army? Typically it’s around 0.4%. In the UK, population 65 million, there’s 120 thousand; that’s 0.2%. So if a country invaded a similar sized country in a fight they, being prepared, would have the advantage of slightly more armed troops but if they entered unopposed they would simply advance and disperse through the whole country. Each armed man would have to control around 300 people. In a foreign country and only trained to fight how would they fair? Could 30 thousand troops control London sustainably? In the countryside could one man control a village of 300 people, be supplied, not feel lonely, not succumb to going native? I’m suggesting the aggressor country fundamentally relies on the defending country to resist in order for them to win and take it over. If that country didn’t put up any resistance they would be so far stretched it would be impossible to have and sustain enough troops to run it. They would trickle on through like the water in my stream and dissipate all their efforts in a futile exercise.” A voice from the audience said it didn’t work in WWll. “That’s not strictly true. Every invaded country put up a fight of some kind, the resistance in France for example. That resistance allowed the Germans to retaliate brutally and subdue the population. They did form a government with the help of collaborators but again this caused a fracture in the population leading to resistance. Admittedly the 6 million German Jews put up no resistance and were slaughtered but a fair proportion of the 69 million German population was negative towards them so that situation is not representative of what I’m suggesting here. I’m suggesting that unopposed a 100 thousand troops would advance so quickly throughout a country it would be a logistical impossibility to supply them, and unopposed they would wonder what they were supposed to do and why they were doing it. They wouldn’t have the intent or
kudos of a conquering army. In time they would simply go home back to the town they knew and their loved ones. It would be like the hundreds of thousands of tourists that invade Greece every year. Sure it would be brave to allow this to happen but if I’m proved right it would be the end of territorial wars.” My friend turned and whispered with a smile, “The man’s crazy.”